It seems to be the cool thing to do these days to shoot your 2025 shot and throw some predictions out there. My goal in all my business/industry related writing is to steer clear of any biases or inside information from working at Nike, and transparently I have almost zero insight to what our running teams are up to. So, with that, here are the places my head goes when I think about the state and direction of RUNNING in 2025.
Brand / Business
I think as a whole, we'll continue to see new brands pop up and the smaller more niche brands gain momentum and take market share. This seems like a pretty common take by others and I 100% agree. Barriers to entry seem to get smaller by the day and brand loyalty does not exist like it used to. Consumers are overwhelmed with options and luckily for us consumers, most all those options are solid buys. The performance innovation, designs, head-to-toe synergies, storytelling, athlete and influencer promotions, all of this is being done remarkably well by dozens and dozens of brands and it's a fascinating time to see what comes out next. With that, here are a couple more specific predictions:
ON Running will invest more heavily into Trail and Ultra and we'll see them aggressively pursue some big-name athletes when contract timing allows. On the track and roads we're seeing ON everywhere and I think brands that aren't deep in trail are realizing if they want to maintain healthy growth this is an excellent organic space to invest in. Because we all know trail runners will spend thousands of dollars on gear every year and that includes multiple pairs of road shoes (I would add that trail athletes tend to be slightly more loyal than road runners).
We see traditional performance brands move more towards the recreational outdoor athlete and vice versa. We see HOKA, ON, Lulu, etc. start marketing more heavily towards hikers and/or creating more product for that space. We see Arc'teryx and The North Face (TNF already has a solid presence but with their recent business struggles I think we see them go heavier into trail) double down on trail running and maybe even see the likes of a Patagonia (insert curiosity emoji) or a Black Diamond start to try to figure out where the trail runner fits more into their strategy.
Sport
Similar to the brand predictions, I think we will see continued healthy growth on the sport side of things. It will be interesting to see what happens to the sport if my prediction comes true that more brands will look to trail running as an opportunity. If more races start getting brands wanting to sponsor and there are more athletes who are sponsored trying to fill their race minimums, that means we'll see some "mid-tier" races have larger budgets and have bigger named athletes on the start line that could set the trajectory for them for years to come. Now let us look at some hot takes:
This may be the last year we see UTMB at the size it is at. I read a lot of articles this past year on the amount of people in Chamonix and the potential destruction it's causing to the trails. I have not been yet (hopefully in 2025!!) so I can't confirm. If this is true, I think we will see some pretty big pressure to reduce the size or we'll learn who's in bed with who as money speaks and 'more runners means mo money yo'.
This seems like a cheesy prediction, but I genuinely believe that A LOT of runners and coaches will latch on to David and Megan Roche's theories and hypothesis. From fueling and hydration to training and race strategy. What this will mean is course records everywhere as rising tides lift all boats and as David and his athletes continue to excel, professional athletes trying to get paid will get left behind if they don't jump on the HUZZAH train.
Another common prediction I honestly think will be big in the coming year or two for professional trail athletes and is the need for a social media presence and ability to create content. There is not enough money in the sport (yet?) for brands to throw six figure salaries at a runner who might win a couple races and get top 10 at Western States. Unless you're Jim, Courtney, or one of the other top 3-5 in the WORLD, you will need to somehow get on Rogan's podcast or hope Elon likes you enough to alter his algorithms.
Self
Because I'm sitting here jamming out and just wrote my own 2025 goals, lets shoot a couple Derrick Dlouhy predictions out into the public eye. These are last because I doubt anyone cares besides my wife (100% likelihood she laughs as she reads this, and I'll be looking at her waiting for it) but maybe they'll give you some ideas for some goals or where you might put your energy this year.
I will continue to fall more in love with roads and aggressively pursue a BQ in the 2027 qualifying window. My goal has been to BQ before I turn 35 and get the time relief. I want to do it the hard way and we'll get it done. That for me is still qualifying by the end of 2026 and running the 2027 race (I'll turn 35 in January 2027). Before, my goal was to pursue trails and once a year or every other year put in a big 12–16-week block to focus on and race a marathon. Now, I want to flip the priorities and focus only on roads and getting faster while still doing one Western States qualifier a year (usually a 100K+ distance race). I have always loved roads and road or track workouts. As a numbers guy, hitting paces or splits produces a runner’s high that would make Snoop Dog jealous. Also, as my own perspective on training theory has shifted I have realized if I want to get more competitive at trail running, the quicker I can get in the 2:40s in the marathon the better chance I have of that happening. So, maybe not a prediction but more something that's already happening....
As someone who works in finance at a running company, you might think my career is in a good place. I'm not entirely sure if that's true but I am grateful to work for such a great company and be so grounded in sport on the daily. However, there are essentially zero jobs in finance that work specifically on running. Crazy huh? And as I reflect more, embed myself in the community more, I want to make a living working on running. I'm not sure what that means for me yet, but I predict by the end of 2025 I'll have a general idea of where I want to go and hopefully be putting things into motion to make it happen.
Yes, both of my predictions for myself are hopefully manifestations of what I want to be true and are aligned to the goals I've set for the year. If they resonate with you, you want to connect, or you have advice please reach out and let’s go for a run or grab a coffee!!
Short and sweet. None of these are groundbreaking but could change the landscape of the sport or industry if they take hold. What predictions do you have or what predictions do I have that make you think I'm completely off my rocker?
Much Love.
Derrick
Matt Trappe writes about the marketing of running at Matter of Brand. Matt Walsh writes about the business of trail running at Trailmix. You’re not a Matt but you could be Derrick writing about the financials of the running industry at Run the Numbers (please let that name be available). Make your own job in finance and running!